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Macro policy should be grim situation for the next year
作者: 发布于:2013-7-18 16:29:35 点击量:

In October, China's economic rebound momentum in September, the overall economy running smoothly. From the point of demand, "the troika" smooth operation, investment growth is the month up 0.2%, continued the trend of modestly; Exports continue to recover 1.7%, year-on-year growth of 11.6%; Nominal consumption grew by 14.5% year on year, up 0.3%, after deducting the price factor growth rebounded 0.3% in real terms. From the point of supply, industrial output rose 9.6%, compared with the previous month, 0.4% rally has been up for two months in a row.

Overall, China's economy continues to rebound in October, but only more gently. In the central "steady growth" policy, under the support of economic operation is presented of snapping of stabilization characteristics. But should see that excess capacity in manufacturing investment growth is still in decline, real estate investment is more dependent on government support for the construction of affordable housing, consumption growth of ascension is holiday and policy work together, and the export growth picks up more because base is low compared to the same period last year, the current external demand, without substantial improvement in stimulus unsustainable, steady economic growth next year the situation is more serious. Should take advantage of the current economic operation is the timing of the smooth, speed up the preset macro policies, especially monetary policy, for the coming year will face more severe economic situation are prepared ahead of time.

A steady rise in import and export

In October, China's import and export value of $319.15 billion, up 7.3% from a year earlier. Among them, the exports of $175.57 billion, up 11.6%; Imported us $143.58 billion, up 2.4% from a year earlier. In October, our country foreign trade import and export gross year-on-year growth than up 1% in September, which exports up 1.7%, import growth and flat in September. The trade surplus of $31.99 billion in October, a record since February 2009.

Export growth than expected in October, is driven by seasonal factors and policy stimulus. In addition, during the same period last year a low base is another important factor. After a seasonally adjusted exports fell by 2.3% month-on-month, suggests that export situation has not improved significantly. From the point of customs provide cargo traffic monitoring, export volumes but also fell 21.8% year-on-year in October.

In October I growth in exports to Europe and the United States have recovered, but influenced by the dispute, for export growth fell. In addition to the rebound in exports to Europe and the United States, strong exports to emerging markets such as the asean is also one of the highlight of export growth in October. In terms of the external environment, the economy is in recession, British and American economy falter, China's exports only bright spot is the emerging markets. Increasing exports to emerging markets is very important to maintain the stability of China's economic growth.

Although export growth than expected in October has the special factors, but the stability of the growth is beneficial to the stabilization of our fourth quarter economy. In November, the export of double-digit growth, or difficult to continue. But in the case of steady growth policies continue to power, import is expected to remain stable.

The project to continue

1 ~ 10 months, the national investment in fixed assets 29.2542 trillion yuan (excluding farmers), year-on-year growth of 20.7%, the nominal grow faster than September 1 ~ 0.2%. In October rose 22.1% during the month, growth is a 0.1% decline in September. From the sequential, fixed asset investment in October (excluding farmers) increased by 1.94%.

The central project investment growth contribution rate is 3.3%, the 1 ~ 9 months increased by 0.7%, local projects due to funding pressure, shrink further investment, lack of endurance. Starting in September, the project investment, started to become a support investment continued growth. In the future due to the local government financial pressure, the central support will last.

Overall, the steady growth of investment in October still mainly by policy, especially the central power source. Infrastructure, such as affordable housing investment hedge the decline of manufacturing and commercial housing investment. But in such as the limited government revenue and financing constraints, the endurance of investment growth will face challenges. In the case of lack of demand, excess capacity contradictions are still will put pressure on manufacturing investment, investment steady growth next year the pressure is bigger.

Consumption growth continues to pick up

In October, total retail sales of social consumer goods 1.8934 trillion yuan, year-on-year growth of 14.5%, the name of the rose up 0.3%; The real growth of 13.5%, rose up 0.3%. Points, according to the business unit seat in October, urban retail sales of consumer goods is 1.6443 trillion yuan, up 14.5% year on year, the month up 0.3%; Rural retail sales of consumer goods is 249 billion yuan, an increase of 14.8%, the month up 0.1%.

Classification, automobile, food, commodity consumption contributed to the growth of consumption growth. Automobile consumption grew 7%, up 5.3%; Grain and oil food and beverage alcohol and tobacco, consumer goods grew by 21.8%, 21.8% respectively, compared with the previous month gained 3.2%. Oct real estate related furniture, home appliances, building decoration materials consumption has a degree of fall, and housing sales continued to improve appeared deviation.

In October, consumption continues to improve still mainly driven by festival and stimulus factors. New Deal more ministries and is prepared to promote consumption, such as the car to the countryside policy of expansion, electrical home appliances to the countryside policy adjustment, hainan offshore duty-free policy strength etc. In the case of the overall economy stabilises, consumption is expected to maintain steady growth. But the fundamental problems of restricting consumption growth is still not solved, expanding consumer still need strength.

Industrial output continues to callback

In October, the industrial added value increased by 9.6% as compared with the actual, than speed up 0.4% in September, two months in a row. From the sequential, in October, industrial output 0.81% increase over the previous month. 1 ~ 10 months, industrial output grew by 10.0% year on year. Points and heavy industry, in October, the added value of heavy industry grew by 9.7% year on year, rose up 0.4%; Light industry grows 9.1%, rose up 0.1%.

Under counter-cyclical policy intervention, the industrial economy to stabilize. Observe the producer price index (PPI) and related inventory month-on-month indicators, the overall industrial enterprises have go from active inventory to passive inventory, it also indicates the demand side of stabilizing. Especially along with the end of the season as well as policy actively again, even though cement, vehicle and ethylene production growth fell, but the production of electricity, steel and non-ferrous products growth in the recovery, which drive the growth of heavy industry is slightly faster than light.

Recovery, and so did the demand continues to rebound, the output of a moderate augur well for recovery. But due to the economy as a whole is still weak, rallied co., LTD. In addition, the economy stabilises at present is mainly driven by exogenous factors such as policy stimulus, the endogenous economic growth momentum has not restored. Substantial improvement and stimulus current external demand is not sustainable, steady economic growth next year will be more serious situation.

The CPI continued to "1"

In October, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.7% in the total level, up 0.2% month-on-month fall back, the same month fell 3.8% year on year. In October, the national consumer price total level fell 0.1%, or 0.4% month-on-month fall back, the same month fell 0.2% year on year.

October is the third time the CPI years under "2". In October, food prices rose 1.8%, or 0.7% month-on-month fall back, in the same month dropped 10.1% year on year; Non-food prices rose by 1.7%, up from flat, the same month fell 1.0% year on year. Food prices contributed to the overall price level downward. Pork prices fell in October, and fresh vegetables, fresh fruit prices continue to fall is a major cause of lead to food prices.

Alarming is that meat prices are falling, but a drop in the narrow.

Unlike the CPI PPI year-on-year decline in narrow, commodity prices rebound. In October, the national producer prices fell 2.8% year on year, a drop from shrinking 0.8%, rose by 0.2%, from 0.3% the previous month to expand. PPI is back for the first time since August 2011, explain the industry in a modest recovery.

CPI continued to fall shows current significantly ease inflationary pressure, but the price rebound has many factors. Especially as the festival draws near, food prices will again rise, will also drive the CPI picks up. Under the background of the economic downturn, however, short-term will moderate prices rebound trend.

Greatly ease inflationary pressures

Economic continued improving trends in October, but want to see this is mainly thanks to the stimulation of the central policy driven. The future as the marginal effect of policies to reduce and has long been a local financial foundation is weak, plus any external environment and economic development environment will be extremely serious. Therefore, it is necessary to take the opportunity of the economy improves, the preset of policy fine-tuning, prepare for the upcoming situation.

China's current inflation pressure has greatly ease, even though the future rise in inflation to moderate, but the more urgent task should be steady growth. October economic data continues to improve, but the endogenous economic growth momentum is still insufficient, especially small and medium-sized enterprises encounter rate rising, rising labor costs, financing difficulties and local financial stress on multiple pressure, and rely on infrastructure such as central to invest heavily in railway form the support of fear for the future. Next year the external situation may be more serious in our country, and the debts of the enterprise and the local high stress makes rely on investment steady growth weakened the strength of the inevitable. Current through the case of a rate cut, on the one hand, can alleviate the pressure of the enterprise, reduce the yuan and the four big currency spreads, reduce the pressure of RMB appreciation, and transform and upgrade to the enterprise to set aside to adjust the time and space; On the other hand is also sufficient preparation for steady growth next year.


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