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The yuan exchange rate against the dollar of record 19 years The future will not rise sharply
作者: 发布于:2013-7-18 16:31:55 点击量:

  Exchange rate flexibility is increased not to rise sharply in the future The RMB exchange rate in 19 years (marketwatch)

The yuan exchange rate against the dollar recently to new peaks. , according to data from the China foreign exchange trade center on April 2, the yuan central parity rate against the dollar at 6.2586, compared with the previous trading day to rise by 88 basis points, rose to 6.26 for the first time, and has set up three consecutive trading day. Analysts said that this year China's economy and foreign trade stabilized recovery is the main reason for the rising of RMB exchange rate. The economic turnaround and the quantitative easing monetary policy in developed countries, the future RMB exchange rate appreciation space still exist, but not much, will continue to maintain two-way volatility, appreciation pattern, exchange rate flexibility may be increased. At the same time, according to the international and domestic market changes, the RMB exchange rate also has the possibility of devaluation.

Continuous refresh revaluation highs

For nearly half a month, the RMB exchange rate has been a rising. On March 25, the yuan against the dollar at the spot exchange rate 6.21 for the first time in 19 years, spot prices hit of 6.2090 on March 29, foreign exchange earning since its high.

According to the China foreign exchange trade center, the yuan central parity rate against the dollar on April 1, 6.2674, hit a record high since last May 2. Affected by middle price higher in early trading on April 1, the dollar against the renminbi exchange rate at sight opened at 6.2085, the lowest intraday reached 6.2077, again refresh record since the revaluation, also climbed to the highest level since the 1993 at the end of the exchange rate system. On April 1, according to the median price calculation, since this year, the yuan central parity rate against the dollar has risen by 181 basis points, a rise of 0.28%.

Released on April 2, early and middle price 6.2586 us dollar against renminbi, the yuan central parity rate than appreciation on April 1, 88 basis points, to refresh the peak of 6.2670 since birth.

Promote a better economy stronger exchange rate

Continuous rising of RMB exchange rate, experts believe that related to our export and economic turnaround. Jinan university international business school professor Sun Hua fung said in an interview with our reporter, last fall after the RMB exchange rate is more stable, in the whole economic situation, import and export didn't finish the plan expected last year, so I need stable exchange rate to support exports. The first two months of this year the foreign trade surplus more than expected, at the same time, America's economic recovery is obvious, can also help on China's exports. In the current good export situation, exchange rate trend appreciation.

China merchants bank, financial markets, a senior analyst at dong-liang liu said that the recent China's exports and purchasing managers' index (PMI), and other data are relatively good, to some extent the previous market worries about China's economic power shortage, it may be the main reason for the recent strengthening of RMB exchange rate.

The RMB exchange rate appreciation and other reasons. Sun Hua fung analysis, said: "neighboring countries, such as Europe, Japan and other economic situation is not very good, they have been pushing loose monetary policy, their currencies in depreciation, so the renminbi to appreciate."

Domestically, there are two reasons. Sun Hua fung said, first of all, the first two months of domestic momentum with inflation, the appreciation of the renminbi will help ease inflation. Second, the central bank governor zhou xiaochuan has been sticking to the direction of the marketization of RMB exchange rate reform to go, now in surplus situation, supply of foreign exchange, foreign exchange demand is weak, the appreciation of the renminbi is a reflection of the current market demand.

The current exchange rate asymptotic equilibrium level

The tendency of RMB exchange rate? Since most of the personage inside course of study thinks, revaluation, after continuous unilateral appreciation of the current RMB exchange rate asymptotic equilibrium level. Central bank deputy governor yi gang said, since in 2005, the RMB exchange rate regime has been much improved, quite marketization, it is a sign that the market supply and demand roughly balanced.

Sun Hua fung agree with this point of view, she said, on the basis of this fundamental equilibrium, because of the surplus would bring certain space, the RMB exchange rate appreciation for the future but not appreciation is very large, because of the sharp rise will damage export enterprise profits. An estimated 2% and - 3% appreciation of space. At the same time, Sun Hua fung, points out that the future will not blindly renminbi appreciation, according to the domestic and international market change, there will be devalued.

Traffic bank chief economist even ping believes that China's economic potential growth is slowing, the RMB exchange rate has space, do not have to rise sharply and rise sharply against export; From the internationalisation of the renminbi, obtain the international resources and avoid large-scale capital outflow into consideration, such as a sharp depreciation nor desirable. To maintain the exchange rate basically stable, therefore, still is the preferred policy, the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to maintain two-way volatility, the operation pattern of appreciation, exchange rate flexibility may be increased.

Barclays bank published research report predicts that the benchmark case, the yuan has appreciated 2% against the dollar in 2013, but because of China's economy stabilises, overseas quantitative easing of multiple factors, such as the yuan rises, depreciation may exist at the same time.

Financial research institute of fudan university released the RMB exchange rate index report also predicts that in the first half of 2013 the yuan against the dollar will continue to rise slightly in the second half will retreat, middle price fluctuations between 6.2 6.4, spot market exchange rate fluctuations between 6.15 6.45.


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